Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 75260.981200 79496.368265 83734.331931 88290.025790 93045.683947 97860.568892 103100.847205
2026-02-01 67609.227895 74002.558863 80581.576444 87848.385718 95640.485567 103735.655837 112772.063468
2026-02-08 62789.239766 70688.400770 78997.920884 88371.753684 98632.669982 109503.743988 121872.493335
2026-02-15 58654.857280 67629.823372 77248.183155 88291.706838 100588.982950 113829.366177 129130.223442
2026-02-22 56134.349162 66070.778831 76890.924677 89502.663756 103751.068986 119301.596794 137507.251309
2026-03-01 53758.687168 64470.529687 76304.932125 90286.868654 106289.116440 123965.377769 144898.783581
2026-03-08 51171.104751 62457.866346 75097.602891 90220.578614 107737.564251 127302.918103 150718.767736
2026-03-15 49112.193278 60931.609821 74334.651757 90557.828352 109556.256614 130991.456322 156890.780526
2026-03-22 47947.225222 60374.482274 74627.424933 92060.298558 112676.819409 136147.907191 164748.189574
2026-03-29 46662.650400 59599.773266 74599.499886 93129.268861 115248.260856 140645.002824 171839.481522
2026-04-05 45301.559480 58663.860104 74319.688717 93845.670032 117362.522571 144583.913492 178273.493958
2026-04-12 43654.280665 57308.276681 73472.478138 93823.113613 118548.346373 147395.875776 183361.908205
2026-04-19 42169.096295 56115.070620 72795.301113 93991.494519 119966.167049 150507.130021 188859.049348
2026-04-26 40621.272081 54788.772848 71907.116268 93860.085491 120989.987768 153131.969147 193778.186429
2026-05-03 39543.809647 54012.257269 71660.875079 94487.252280 122917.635355 156836.692191 200007.462458
2026-05-10 38202.584724 52849.858211 70888.411327 94419.393630 123957.301758 159444.364990 204901.236670
2026-05-17 37569.824667 52572.313010 71207.223842 95702.076288 126664.105175 164092.580952 212308.392249
2026-05-24 36770.211854 52046.156291 71183.806009 96531.073546 128792.075170 168029.888421 218859.620758
2026-05-31 35616.258714 51015.553807 70479.406318 96461.258858 129764.981517 170525.543229 223630.232551
2026-06-07 34706.561833 50278.134402 70126.017887 96817.434274 131259.987766 173663.408643 229205.138526
2026-06-14 34364.671494 50285.258655 70729.780308 98403.881651 134325.057513 178778.108373 237278.235872
2026-06-21 33851.658952 50041.603591 70989.415454 99532.437300 136801.282457 183162.041023 244459.910884
2026-06-28 33212.253805 49604.185042 70975.247821 100288.697972 138791.098894 186935.464949 250890.540244